ABSTRACT
With the United States presidential election merely days away (set to take place on 3 Nov. 2020), the world's gaze has shifted to the race for the White House and whether there will be a Republican or Democrat taking office. [...]if this circumstance were to change, there would be potential consequences for European pharma companies that have a presence in or deal with the US. If the Democrats win the presidency and have control over Congress, it is expected that foreign and generic-drug manufacturers would benefit as a result of lower market entrance barriers.
ABSTRACT
In recent years, the global economy has witnessed several uncertainty-inducing events. However, empirical evidence in Africa on the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on economic activities remains scanty. Besides, the moderating effect of governance institutions on the uncertainty-economic performance relationship in Africa and the likelihood of regional differences in the response of economic activities to EPU on the continent are yet to be investigated. To address these gaps, we applied system GMM and quantile regressions on a panel of forty-seven African countries from 2010 to 2019. We find that while global EPU and EPUs from China, USA and Canada exert considerable influence on economic performance in Africa, the effects of domestic EPU and EPUs from Europe, UK, Japan, and Russia were negligible, suggesting that African economies are resilient to these sources of uncertainty shocks. We also find that governance institutions in Africa are not significantly moderating the uncertainty-economic performance relationship. However, our results highlighted regional differences in the response of economic activities to uncertainty, such that when compared to East and West Africa, economic performance in Central, North and Southern Africa is generally more resilient to global EPU and EPUs from China, USA, Europe and UK. We highlighted the policy implications of these findings.
ABSTRACT
Rather, it would be more correct to say that Donald Trump found a ready audience for nationalism and postliberal thinking in the United States and rode a seemingly unlikely wave into the White House by semi-miraculously navigating the twists and turns of the Electoral College. COVID-19, of course, has proved to be a breeding ground of predominantly right-wing conspiracy theories, including regarding vaccines even though they were the result of a Trump-led program. [...]he made an argument that Vice President Mike Pence would be able to refuse to certify the election results. Tocqueville approached democracy as a young aristocrat from a family that had suffered in the French Revolution.
ABSTRACT
" Words Matter: Presidents Obama and Trump, Twitter, and U.S. Soft Power. Graph [9] concentrate on the issues that soured the initial optimism for a U.S.-U.K. free trade agreement between President Trump and Prime Minister Johnson which did not come to its planned fruition by 2020. EN Social Media Foreign Policy Twitter Soft Power Obama Trump Boris Johnson Humanitarian Intervention President Clinton Bosnia Kosovo China Sri-Lanka Kazakhstan South Korea ASEAN Sub-Saharan Africa Information Technology. NOTE FROM THE EDITOR: Presidential Tweets, the U.S.-U.K. Free Trade Agreement, Humanitarian Intervention, and China's Bilateral Relations. [Extracted from the article] Copyright of World Affairs is the property of Sage Publications Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)
ABSTRACT
PurposeThis study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly creates a trade war scenario and trade war participant dummies. Using the neural network multilayer perceptron, this study checks for the causal linkages between the predictors and target output for the panel of Asian economies and the USA.Design/methodology/approachA conceptual model of the after effects of trade war in a quadrant is developed. Variables related to trade and tariffs are included in the study for a panel of 19 Asian economies. The feedforward structure of neural network analysis is used to identify strong and weak predictors of trade war.FindingsThe hidden layers of the multilayer perceptron reveal the inconsistency in linkages for the predictors' services exports, tariff measures, anti-dumping measures, trade war scenario dummy with gross domestic product. The findings suggest that to curtail the impact of the trade war on Asian economies, predictors with neural evidence must be paid due weightage in policy determination and trade agreements.Originality/valueThe study applies a novel and little explored AI/ML technique of Neural Network analysis with training of 70% observations. The paper will provide opportunity for other researchers to explore techniques of AI/ML in trade studies.
ABSTRACT
Information disorders on social media can have a significant impact on citizens' participation in democratic processes. To better understand the spread of false and inaccurate information online, this research analyzed data from Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. The data were collected and verified by professional fact-checkers in Chile between October 2019 and October 2021, a period marked by political and health crises. The study found that false information spreads faster and reaches more users than true information on Twitter and Facebook. Instagram, on the other hand, seemed to be less affected by this phenomenon. False information was also more likely to be shared by users with lower reading comprehension skills. True information, on the other hand, tended to be less verbose and generate less interest among audiences. This research provides valuable insights into the characteristics of misinformation and how it spreads online. By recognizing the patterns of how false information diffuses and how users interact with it, we can identify the circumstances in which false and inaccurate messages are prone to becoming widespread. This knowledge can help us to develop strategies to counter the spread of misinformation and protect the integrity of democratic processes.
ABSTRACT
President Kais Saied's de facto dissolution of parliament in July 2021, abandonment of the constitution, and targeting of the opposition are clear signs that Tunisia is no longer a democracy and has returned to the authoritarian playbook of Arab leaders past and present. I see three main reasons for this abrupt end to Tunisia's decade-old democracy: 1) the failure to accompany political reform with socioeconomic gains for citizens;2) the subsequent rise of populism;and 3) the mistakes of the Islamic party. To move forward in Tunisia and the Arab world more broadly, prodemocratic forces must link freedom, development, and social justice.
ABSTRACT
Whether deserved on not, US Presidents often receive the blame or the credit for the nature of the economy and direction of the country. Therefore, the status of the economy and the country in an election year can be a very important factor in election success for an incumbent President (or his party if an incumbent is not running). This is especially true in ‘battleground states' due to the presence of the Electoral College system where Presidential candidates need only win different combinations of states in order to become President. However, the 2020 Presidential election was vastly different from past election cycles in that an additional variable, COVID-19, was added to the decision calculus of voters. Eventually, the 2020 election came down to the extremely slim margins in three states (Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin) and thin margins in two others (Pennsylvania and Michigan). This paper shows that deaths from COVID-19 at the county level played a small role in demotivating voters to turnout in 2020 to cast their vote for Joe Biden as President. In other words, without Covid-19, President Trump's losses within these five states would have been even larger.
ABSTRACT
: This research aimed to analyze the use of cybermarketing in the political campaign of Andrés Arauz during the 2021 presidential elections, in contrast to that of Lenín Moreno in 2017, to identify the change in strategies in the COVID-19 pandemic. For the design, techniques such as interviews with experts in political communication and surveys of young centennials and millennials between 21 and 29 years old in various provinces of Ecuador were used. La política ha adoptado las nuevas herramientas digitales para sus objetivos, gracias a ellas, por un lado, se puede realizar una mejor segmentación, un mayor alcance de información, mayor contacto con el electorado, etc., todo ello forma parte de lo que se conoce como ciberpolítica, entendida como "nuevas formas de interacción entre el gobierno y los ciudadanos, entre éstos y los partidos políticos, entre las empresas y los órganos legislativos, entre ciudadanos de un régimen político y entre ciudadanos del mundo" (Caballero, 2016, p. 292). En el caso de WhatsApp se discute si la misma se puede considerar como una red social que sea parte del marketing político ya que es una herramienta personal y casi no invasiva.
ABSTRACT
We are experiencing the rise of unprecedented opportunities as a result of the digital revolution, but regrettably this has also been accompanied by a number of novel threats. One of the most visible manifestations of these threats is the rapid spread of misinformation and disinformation. The implications of this threat extend from the individual to the national and international levels, where misinformation and disinformation bring the risk of hybrid warfare and power competition closer to home. Needless to say, the breadth of these implications makes dealing with digital misinformation even more difficult. This commentary focuses on several global events where misinformation and disinformation were used as a tactical tool, including the 2016 U.S. elections, Brexit, and COVID-19. Then, we discuss the situation involving Türkiye, one of the nations that serves as both a target and a focal point of regional disinformation campaigns. The commentary then shifts to some of the Communication Directorate's most significant initiatives, such as the creation of the Earthquake Disinformation Bulletins, the Law on the Fight Against Disinformation, and the Center for Fight Against Disinformation. Finally, above all, this commentary aims to raise awareness of the dangers of online misinformation and urges international cooperation to ensure that the truth always prevails.
ABSTRACT
B This first rally in decades offers hope for democracy. b Hundreds of Gambians marched through the capital Banjul on March 10th in what was believed to be the first opposition protest permitted in the former dictatorship for nearly three decades. The petition also highlighted the high cost of living and a swathe of financial scandals including Covid-19 funding and a Gambia Ports Authority embezzlement scandal. In a statement, the UDP Youth Wing described the police decision to grant the march as a "positive development" that it hoped would mark "a turning point in the political landscape". [Extracted from the article] Copyright of Africa Research Bulletin: Political, Social & Cultural Series is the property of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)
ABSTRACT
This article analyzes how the 2020 Polish Presidential election was affected by the recent COVID-19 pandemic in the context of global democratic backsliding. Specifically, this article examines how the incumbency advantage of President Andrzej Duda was bolstered during the pandemic by the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS). Although PiS was unable to carry out every planned electoral manipulation, the party nonetheless helped Duda secure a second term in office in a historically close election. On the one hand, this article illustrates that while many of the tactics undertaken by PiS were within the limits of the letter of the law, its actions still undermined the spirit of Polish democracy. On the other hand, this article also contributes to the literature on democratic backsliding by underscoring the fact that the election in Poland was free and fair, which makes this regime qualitatively different from other cases in the region.
ABSTRACT
The U.S. presidential election is one of the most important events in the world, to which the stock markets of other countries react. The 2020 U.S. presidential election was unique due to delayed vote counts, the incumbent president's false election-fraud claims, and the violent riots at the U.S. Capitol Building. In this study, the reactions of Thailand's stock market are examined using the event-conditioning method for event-study analyses. The sample period ranges from August 6, 2019, to January 28, 2021. The period overlaps the period of the COVID-19 pandemic and Thailand's youth protest, thus constituting parameter-instability and confounding-event problems. This study relies on the international capital asset pricing model to mitigate the parameter-instability problem, as it constructs event-dummy control variables to resolve the confounding-event problem. The data comprises daily log returns of Morgan Stanley Global Investable Market Indices portfolios for Thailand and the world, in excess of the 1-month U.S. treasury bill rate. The reactions are found to be significant for the election, the final election results, and the presidential inauguration;they are non-significant for the Capitol riots and the incumbent president's false claims. For the same events, there is dissimilarity between the reactions of the Thai and U.S. markets.
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic struck when Uganda was in the middle of an acrimonious campaign season, in which longstanding president Yoweri Museveni was being challenged by Bobi Wine, a reggae singer turned politician. When Museveni imposed a strict lockdown, musicians sympathetic to Wine responded with songs about COVID-19 that challenged the government's short-term, biopolitical demarcation of the national emergency. Pier and Mutagubya interpret a selection of Ugandan COVID-19 pop songs from 2020, considering in musical-historical perspective their various strategies for re-narrating the health crisis.
ABSTRACT
Amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the contentious U.S. 2020 presidential election featured candidates with quite different stances on regulating the oil and gas industry, leaving many to question the longevity of fossil fuel use. However, little research explores the relationship between presidential policies and the oil market. In this paper, extensive research into presidential energy policies and their effects on domestic oil prices and production dating back to 1977 helps us identify whether we can predict the industry's future under Joe Biden's administration. The paper's results suggest the domestic oil industry is more dependent on external foreign events - with presidential policies offering almost negligible effects on prices and production.
ABSTRACT
After another surge in cases, COVID-19 slowly receded from Indonesia's foreground in 2022 as restrictions were lifted, schools and businesses reopened, and the economy rebounded. The Jokowi government posted several legislative victories while also testing the guardrails of democracy, for example with a public push to postpone the 2024 presidential elections. Corruption and misconduct grabbed global and national headlines and riveted the nation. In foreign policy, Indonesia chaired the G20 in a challenging year for the world economy and global politics.
ABSTRACT
Introduction The 2020 US Presidential Election captivated the US public resulting in record turnout. In the months preceding the elections COVID-19, racial injustice and the economic downturn had a daily impact on the lives of voters. In this research, we analyze the sleep behavior of Americans in the lead up to the Presidential Elections. We examine specifically the nights of the Presidential and Vice-Presidential Debates and Election Night. Methods We examined sleep data from the PSG-validated SleepScore Mobile Application, which uses a non-contact sonar-based method to objectively capture sleep-related metrics and self-reported lifestyle data. The data set included 123,723 nights (5,967 users residing in the US, aged 18-85, mean age: 46.6 +/- 16.7 years, 52.3% female). Data from September 1st until November 3rd were included. This covered the nights of the Presidential Debates (Tuesday 09/29/2020 and Thursday 10/22/2020) and the Vice-Presidential Debate (Wednesday 10/07/2020). Election night was Tuesday, November 3, 2020. Self-reported stress level (0-24 scale) and alcohol consumption (0-9 drinks) were measured using digital slider scales. Mixed Effect Modelling was used for analysis. Results The night of the 1st Presidential debate saw a change in sleep-related behavior with users going to bed 9.5 minutes later, as compared to a regular Tuesday Night. This resulted in a decrease in both TST (11.5 mins, p<0.001) and TIB (11.8 mins, p<0.001). Interestingly, neither the the 2nd Presidential Debate, nor the Vice Presidential Debate resulted in significant differences in sleep behavior. On election night users went to bed 14.5 (p<0.001) min later on average, as compared to a normal Tuesday Night. This resulted in a decrease in both TIB (24.3 mins, p<0.001) and TST (19.2 mins, p<0.001). Self-report data showed a 13.3% (p<0.001) increase in stress level on election night and 34.4% (p<0.001) increase alcohol consumption Importantly, election night was two nights after the end of Daylight Savings Time (DST), Sunday, November 1st. Conclusion This analysis shows the 2020 US Presidential election negatively impacted US population sleep. The impact was most pronounced on election night, but also observed following the first Presidential debate. The effect of DST on these findings is unknown but surmised to be meaningful. Support (if any):
ABSTRACT
There have been several periods in American history that are referred to as turbulent times. They were characterized by a wide range of changes that happened to respond to issues that brought anxiety, threat, discontent, or trouble. Donald Trump's presidency and the Covid-19 pandemic significantly influenced American immigration policy and the lives of immigrants. The present article pays special attention to the Mexican-American border. This area plays a crucial role in migration studies focusing on the Americas for at least two reasons: international relations between Mexico (and the Latin American region) and the United States, and homeland security issues related to irregular and regular migrant flows. This study aims to determine what changes have been implemented in border policy, investigate why they occurred, and finally, discuss their results. The article analyzes the most challenging issues characteristic of the situation of unaccompanied minor migrants, the concept of Trump's wall or the 'remain in Mexico' program. The US-Mexican border studies have played a crucial role in research dedicated to American immigration policy since its inception. Today, it is also an area of concern and special attention is paid to this region due to the dynamics of processes taking place at the border. The work presented here discusses and highlights the most turbulent issues that echoed not only in the United States but also worldwide.
ABSTRACT
In 2022, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son and namesake of the late dictator, won a landslide victory in the presidential election after campaigning largely on nostalgia for the Philippines' authoritarian past and perceived former greatness. The country was finally able to reopen from COVID-19 lockdowns after enduring a surge in the Omicron variant in the earlier months of the year. Global food and energy inflation, caused by excessive fiscal spending and monetary easing adopted during the pandemic, in addition to the aftershock of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has led to an unprecedented food crisis in the Philippines that has been particularly difficult for the poor. In terms of foreign policy, Marcos Jr.'s arrival marked a return to more conventional diplomatic interactions with Washington at a time of increasing tension between the United States and China.